The Lancet Infectious Diseases

Background: The World Health Organization has expanded its recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination for at-risk populations. Durable vaccine-induced immunity is important for sustaining outbreak preparedness in regions with recurrent Ebola virus disease (EVD). We assessed five-year persistence of vaccine-induced immune responses in adults and children from the PREVAC trial. Methods: Two large randomised phase 2 trials (NCT02876328), in adults and children aged [≥]1 year, were conducted in four west African countries. Participants were randomly assigned to placebo or to one of three Ebola vaccine strategies: Ad26.ZEBOV followed by MVA-BN-Filo at 56 days; rVSV{Delta}G-ZEBOV-GP followed by placebo; or rVSV{Delta}G-ZEBOV-GP followed by a homologous booster dose at 56 days. After 12 months of follow-up, the primary results were published, participants unblinded to their vaccine assignment, and follow-up continued for 60 months. After Month 24, placebo group recipients were offered active vaccination. Anti Ebola virus glycoprotein Immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations were measured for 5 years. Findings: 1401 adults and 1401 children were initially randomized, and 1315 (93.9%) adults and 1322 (94.4%) children attended at least one long-term visit. Retention was high, with 95% followed beyond 1 year and 83% completion at 5-year follow-up. For the three vaccine strategies, antibody geometric mean concentrations (GMC) declined modestly between Months 12 and 24, followed by a stable plateau from Months 24 to 60. At Month 60, antibody GMC were higher in the rVSV-based groups (1099 and 1216 EU/ml for adults; 1982 and 2347 EU/ml for children) than in the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo group (252 adults and 645 EU/ml children). Antibody persistence at Month 60 was heterogeneous, varying by age, sex, country, and baseline IgG concentration. Interpretation: Licensed Ebola vaccines induced sustained antibody responses in adults and children for up to 5 years. While the protective antibody level is unknown, these data demonstrate long-lasting immune responses from currently employed vaccine strategies.

Pooled testing programs were introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic to expand surveillance capacity while preserving testing resources, but evidence on their epidemiological impact in schools under real-world conditions remains limited. We analyzed data from the pooled testing program implemented in public primary schools of the canton of Basel-Landschaft, Switzerland, during the Fall-Winter 2021 Delta wave. We used an agent-based transmission model informed by pooled and individual testing results, school characteristics, contact networks, and community incidence. The model was fitted to pooled positivity ratios in four clusters of administrative areas with similar epidemic trajectories. We compared pooled testing with alternative protocols in terms of school transmission, testing volume, and student-days lost. During the study period, pooled testing was offered to 21'187 students across 62 public primary schools, with high and stable participation across clusters (mean 71-79%). The fitted model reproduced observed pool positivity trends well. Compared with pooled testing, reactive class closure, reactive screening, and symptomatic testing were associated with higher in-school transmission, with excess ranging from 50% to 87%, 63% to 104%, and 72% to 133% across clusters. Weekly individual screening achieved similar reductions in transmission but required 15-25 times more tests. Relaxing class closure after depooling substantially reduced student-days lost without increasing transmission. Under real-world conditions, pooled testing provided an effective and resource-efficient strategy to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in primary schools. Combining early detection of asymptomatic infections with low testing demands, pooled testing offers a scalable approach to school surveillance and control for pandemic response in educational settings.

Background Artemisinin derivatives are central to first-line treatment of both uncomplicated and severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Emerging artemisinin partial resistance in East Africa threatens to spread across the continent. Methods In two cross-sectional studies in Zambia in 2024, we genotyped the artemisinin resistance-associated gene Pfkelch13. In Kaoma, western Zambia, we evaluated the percentage of patients with day-3 parasite positivity following treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy, and ex vivo parasite susceptibility to dihydroartemisinin (the active metabolite of artemisinin). We also assessed longitudinal changes in Pfkelch13 mutation prevalence in Kaoma using isolates collected from 2018 through 2026. Results We identified a novel mutation, Pfkelch13 A724E, in 52% (113 of 217) of isolates from Western Province, 51% (94 of 184) of isolates from North-Western Province, and 11.7% (229 of 1,949) of isolates country-wide. In Kaoma, 28% (21 of 75) of patients carrying Pfkelch13 A724E mutant parasites before treatment were parasite positive on day 3, compared with 0% (0 of 23) of patients with the wild-type allele (P=0.003). Within day-3 positive patients, the proportion of A724E mutant parasites increased significantly after treatment (P = 0.013). The prevalence of Pfkelch13 A724E in Kaoma increased steadily from 0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0 to 22%) in 2018 to 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85%) in 2026. Conclusions A novel Pfkelch13 mutation conferring partial resistance to artemisinin is spreading in Zambia. Additional clinical evaluations are urgently needed in the region. (Funded by the Gates Foundation, INV-048316).

Summary Background Persistent transmission from relapsing Plasmodium vivax infections threatens malaria elimination programs in the Asia-Pacific and Americas. Tools to identify people at risk of relapse are urgently required. We aimed to validate a panel of eight P. vivax serological biomarkers for predicting future relapses. Methods In this observational study, soldiers returning from malaria-endemic Papua to non-endemic East Java, Indonesia, were screened at enrolment using antibody measurement (Luminex) and trained random forest classification algorithms, then followed for 6 months. Active case detection was performed fortnightly by microscopy. Algorithms classified soldiers as recently infected (last nine months) and thus at risk of relapse, based on anti-vivax antibody measurements at enrolment. Findings Between December 2018 and July 2022, 592 soldiers were enrolled, with 553 completing follow-up; 119 experienced a P. vivax relapse. Of these, 102 were correctly classified as at risk of relapse at enrolment, corresponding to 86% sensitivity and 86% specificity, with an AUC of 0.92. Interpretation P. vivax serological biomarkers can identify people at risk of relapse with high sensitivity and specificity and could be used as a novel public health intervention, P. vivax serological testing and treatment (PvSeroTAT), to reduce relapse-driven transmission.

Introduction Care home (CH) influenza vaccination of staff improves resident health, yet uptake remains low at just over 11% (England, 2025/2026). We report an economic evaluation (EE) of "FluCare", an intervention to increase staff influenza vaccination through: vaccination clinics at CHs; promotional materials; and CH financial incentives. Method Seventy-five CHs were randomised to FluCare or control. A cost-consequence analysis took the influenza vaccination programme funder perspective, but also extended to the National Health Service (NHS) and CH perspective. Costs included: influenza vaccination; administration fee; FluCare components; CH resident NHS utilisation. Outcomes were: staff influenza vaccination rates; staff sickness; and resident mortality. Sensitivity analyses excluded intervention CHs that did not host vaccination clinics. Results Compared to control CHs, adjusted analysis found intervention homes with a mean absolute increase in vaccination rates of 1.8% (95% CI: -6.0%, 10.8%; p=0.572) at an increased cost of {pound}451 (95% CI: {pound}239, {pound}675; p<0.001) to the vaccination programme funders: {pound}249 per additional percentage point (PAPP) per CH. Vaccination clinics were delivered late in the influenza season, with 80% taking place from February 2023. Including only intervention CHs that hosted staff flu vaccination clinics (23/35), increases the mean difference to 10.1% (95% CI: 0.9%, 21.9%; p=0.018) and costs to {pound}805 (95% CI: {pound}603, {pound}1,079; p<0.001): {pound}79 PAPP per CH. Differences between trial arms in other costs and outcomes were marginal and generally non-significant. Conclusions FluCare delivered little improvement when staff flu vaccination clinics did not occur and had little impact on other costs/outcomes. Cost-effectiveness depends on willingness-to-pay for increased staff vaccination, but cost PAPP per CH improved from {pound}249 to {pound}79 when only CHs hosting clinics were considered. Late implementation, likely reduced impact by limiting clinic delivery, as reflected in sensitivity analysis. Future evaluations should implement FluCare earlier in the season.

Use of fungal mycelia, which has antiviral properties, constitutes a novel strategy for addressing existing and newly emerging viral diseases. We evaluated safety and feasibility of fungal mycelia (Fomitopsis officinalis and Trametes versicolor, FoTv) for treatment of COVID-19 and assessed its antiviral effects and potential to reduce symptoms. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dual site (UCSD/UCLA medical centers) clinical trial we examined non-hospitalized patients who contracted mild-to-moderate COVID-19 [&le;] 96 hours, and experienced symptom onset [&le;] nine days, before enrollment. FoTv was safe, well-tolerated, and feasible for COVID-19 treatment. Minor differences in biochemical markers were observed between groups (26 FoTv, 24 Placebo). FoTv significantly reduced the number and severity of symptoms, particularly sore throat/cough, and in vitro SARS-CoV-2 (pseudovirus) cellular infection. In conclusion, FoTv was safe and reduced COVID-19 symptoms and cellular viral infection. Future studies should investigate therapeutic benefits of fungal mycelia for SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses. Clinicaltrials.gov registration:NCT04667247.

Background: Reliable inference of Plasmodium vivax recurrence states - relapse, recrudescence and reinfection (the ``3Rs'') - improves estimates of antimalarial efficacy. The R package Pv3Rs features a Bayesian model designed for P. vivax molecular correction, i.e., using parasite genetic data to infer recurrence states. The model is an extension of a prototype built to analyse microsatellite data from the Vivax History (VHX) and Best Primaquine Dose (BPD) trials. Methods: We re-analysed data from 212 VHX and BPD trial participants (493 recurrences) using Pv3Rs, comparing results with those from the prototype and with genetic relatedness estimated using Dcifer, a tool for estimating relatedness based on identity-by-descent. Posterior recurrence state probabilities were computed using both uniform and time-to-event priors: artificial but equal prior probabilities facilitate posterior interpretation, while time-to-event priors leverage all available information and enable re-computation of failure rates. Relatedness estimates were used to identify and correct instances of model misspecification. Results: The Pv3Rs model generated posterior probabilities for all recurrences and was able to jointly model data on all episodes per participant for 89% of participants, compared with 73% using the prototype. Recurrence state probabilities were broadly consistent across methods, though the Pv3Rs model elevated reinfection probabilities slightly. Relatedness estimates exposed various outliers consistent with half-sibling parasites and/or genotyping errors. Outlier correction impacted some per-participant failure probabilities, but reinfection-adjusted radical-cure failure rates of high-dose primaquine remained near 3%, in line with previous findings. Conclusion: Re-analysis of VHX and BPD P. vivax genetic data restates earlier reinfection-adjusted efficacy estimates. It demonstrates the increased computational capability and misspecification sensitivity of Pv3Rs, highlighting a need for careful analyses. Using relatedness-based diagnostics alongside model-based inference, we were able to harness the advantages of model-based inference and provide a framework for future P. vivax molecular correction.

Introduction: Respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity. Newly available vaccines to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and encouraging clinical progress on vaccines for human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and parainfluenza (PIV) could reduce the disease burden beyond existing influenza and SARS-CoV-2 immunisation programs. However, evidence on the contribution of these viruses to respiratory disease burden across the lifespan remains limited. Methods: We reviewed studies from 01/2002-11/2025 reporting age-stratified, medically attended cases of influenza, and at least one of RSV, hMPV, or PIV, in high-income countries, excluding periods substantially overlapping with the COVID-19 pandemic. Using only studies that tested for all four viruses, we estimated the age-specific proportion of cases that were non-influenza (total across RSV, hMPV and PIV) compared to influenza using a mixed-effects logistic regression model. Results: Following exclusions and screening, 61 studies were included in the primary analysis comprising >500,000 detections of the four viruses. We found that a substantial proportion of medically attended respiratory illness in infants and young children was due to PIV, hMPV and RSV, rather than influenza, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 90.2% (95% CI 85.9-93.2%) in young infants aged 0-6 months. The converse was true for school-aged children, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 34.8% (95% CI 26.5-44.2%) in children aged 5-18 years. In adults aged 65+ years, non-influenza causes of medically attended disease were common at 60.2% (95% CI 50.0-69.5%). Restricting to studies reporting hospitalised cases (n=19) produced broadly similar age-specific trends in relative virus burden contributions. Discussion: We highlight the significant burden of medically attended illness due to PIV, hMPV and RSV across ages, particularly in infant and preschool-aged children and older adults, supporting the need for effective vaccines targeting this burden.

Background Healthcare-associated infections pose a major burden to neonatal health worldwide and remain difficult to track in low-resource hospitals because patient movement data and pathogen genomic data are rarely integrated into actionable transmission models. Existing approaches are often restricted to specific settings, highly structured electronic health records (EHRs), or analyses focused on either patient movements or pathogen characteristics alone. To address this gap, we developed PathoPath, an open-source integrative modelling platform, and evaluated its utility in a high burden paediatric hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Methods PathoPath is an open-source R package that combines electronic health records with whole genome sequencing data to generate contact networks from direct and indirect contacts using minimal structured inputs. We retrospectively applied PathoPath to 373 cases of Klebsiella pneumoniae species complex (KpSC) infection identified in 2021 at the largest paediatric referral hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Ward level patient movement trajectories were used to reconstruct contact networks, and genomic data from isolates from children <60 days were integrated to identify probable dissemination of bacterial clones and antimicrobial resistance plasmids. Findings PathoPath identified 750 direct contacts among 317 patients, forming 25 connected components, with the largest including 93 patients. KpSC infections were identified across 21 of 37 wards, with the neonatal intensive care unit accounting for 77.9% of all cases. Integration of genomic and network data distinguished sustained clustering of ST147 from multiple probable inter-clonal dissemination events involving IncFII plasmids carrying blaNDM-5 and/or blaOXA-181 within ST16. Four dominant sequence types accounted for 65.6% of sequenced isolates, and carbapenemase genes were detected in 95.8%. Interpretation PathoPath reconstructs hospital-wide contact networks and integrates them with pathogen genomics to map probable dissemination of pathogens and antimicrobial resistance using minimal structured clinical data. It could support more targeted infection prevention and control in hospitals where granular digital records are not available.

Vaccines to prevent infant group B streptococcus (GBS) disease are advancing, with licensure likely based on safety and immunologic endpoints rather than clinical efficacy data. This approach requires robust, generalisable serological thresholds of risk reduction (SToRRs). We combined data from six case-control studies in Europe and Africa to define SToRRs for early-onset (EOD) and late-onset (LOD) GBS disease. Across diverse epidemiological and healthcare settings, anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG concentrations were consistently higher in infants who remained disease free than in those who developed disease. Higher antibody concentrations were required to reduce the risk of EOD than LOD, and higher concentrations were required for serotype Ia than for serotype III. This study provides a quantitative framework to support correlates-based evaluation and potential licensure of maternal GBS vaccines.

An ongoing outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was deemed a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026. To prevent cross-border importation, many countries, including the United States, Canada, India, Thailand, and Kenya have already proposed containment strategies, and others are likely to follow suit. How well (or poorly) are screening and quarantine containment measures are likely to work? We leverage established epidemiological theory and develop a mathematical model of traveler screening and post-arrival quarantine for BVD to answer this question. We find that traveler screening via symptom screening or molecular testing will miss the majority of infected travelers, and should be complemented by post-arrival quarantine and monitoring of sufficient duration to detect those with long incubation periods. Our findings underscore the limitations of border screening and the importance of complementary measures like post-arrival quarantine to prevent local importation of BVD.

Background Tuberculosis remains the leading infectious cause of death worldwide. In the WHO African region, declining incidence has coincided with antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up, though whether this reflects reduced progression to disease or reduced transmission is unclear. We evaluated how ART and symptom status influence within-household Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) transmission risk. Methods We conducted a case-contact household study in rural South Africa, enrolling index adults with bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. MTBC immunoreactivity was measured in all child household contacts (aged 2-14 years) as a proxy measure of within-household transmission. We assessed the influence of index person ART status and symptom status, and explored effect-measure modification of the association between index person HIV status and transmission risk by sex. Results Among 755 child contacts of 296 index persons, effective ART was not associated with within-household MTBC transmission risk (risk ratio [RR], 1.07; 95% CI, 0.66-1.74). Among PLHIV engaged in ART care, WHO TB four-symptom screen (WHO4SS) status was not associated with transmission risk (RR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.43-1.47), although absence of reported cough reduced risk (RR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38-0.96). A pronounced interaction between sex and HIV status was observed: HIV-negative women had the highest within-household MTBC transmission risk (30.5% vs. 14.3% in women with HIV) whereas risks were similar between HIV-positive and HIV-negative men. Conclusions We found no evidence that effective ART or WHO4SS status influenced within-household MTBC transmission risk, though confidence intervals were wide. Absence of reported cough was associated with lower risk, and transmission risk was highest among child contacts of HIV-negative women. These findings suggest reported cough is a useful marker of transmission risk and that routine tuberculosis screening within ART care may reduce transmission from PLHIV; intensified efforts are nonetheless needed to achieve earlier tuberculosis detection in HIV-negative individuals.

Cultural engagement is associated longitudinally with better mental health and reduced depression incidence, but evidence has largely relied on self-reported symptoms and diagnoses, leaving uncertainty about clinically recorded disorders, and residual confounding remains a concern. Here, we examined whether cultural engagement (including going to cinemas, museums, galleries, exhibitions, theatre, concerts, or opera) predicts hospital-treated mental disorders in 8,274 adults aged 50 years or older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Participant records were linked to ICD-10 diagnoses in Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality records with follow-up of up to 20 years. In fully adjusted Cox models accounting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and social factors and multiple testing, frequent cultural engagement was associated with lower risk of any mental disorders (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.82, FDR adjusted P value<0.001), dementia (0.71, 0.56-0.89, FDR adjusted P value=0.010), substance misuse (0.75, 0.59-0.95,FDR adjusted P value=0.040), and mood disorders (0.73, 0.56-0.95, FDR adjusted P value=0.044), but not neurotic disorders. Associations persisted after excluding early incident cases and adjusting for baseline depressive symptoms and cognition, and showed robustness to unmeasured confounders. To further probe causality, eye disease, ear disease, and traumatic brain injury, which share similar socio-demographic profiles to mental disorders, were prespecified as negative control outcomes. Cultural engagement was not associated with any negative control outcomes. These findings provide triangulated statistical data to suggest that cultural engagement is associated with reduced risk of several clinically recorded mental disorders and support further testing of cultural engagement as a population mental health strategy.

Background: In resource-limited settings, a critical bottleneck in cervical cancer prevention is the lack of practical strategies to triage high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV)- positive women. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and internally validate a genotype-specific risk stratification model. Methods: A cross-sectional study enrolled 555 women in Cameroon. Data collection integrated cervical cytology and HPV genotyping using Abbott m2000rt and Sacace multiplex systems. An iterative modeling approach with bootstrap validation was used to develop the model and address model instability. HR-HPV genotypes were transformed into a hierarchical risk variable due to sparsity and integrated with significant predictors. The final model was translated into a scoring system, and the risk gradients and performances were evaluated at two thresholds. Data was analyzed using SPSS 27.0. Results: The mean age was 44.8 years, and the prevalence of HR-HPV was 26.5% (147/555). The final model, incorporating HPV categories, age, and tobacco, demonstrated moderate discriminative ability (AUC=0.702, 0.642-0.762) with a good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow {chi}{superscript 2}=4.05, p=0.399). The scoring system assigned women to risk groups based on their total scores which produced a clear monotonic risk gradient; the observed probability of high-grade lesions/cancer ranged from 15% (score 0) to >65% (score [&ge;]4). At a conservative threshold ([&ge;]4 points), 4.7% (26/555) of women were classified as high-risk, concentrating 46% (6/13) of cancers (positive predictive value[PPV]=58%) while a sensitive threshold ([&ge;]3 points) had 16.8% (93/555) high-risk, concentrating 77% (10/13) cancers (PPV=38%). Both thresholds maintained a high negative predictive value (>95%). Conclusion: This bootstrap-validated, risk-stratification tool is a proof-of-concept in resource limited settings that assigns HR-HPV-positive women to distinct management pathways using three variables. After refining through a longitudinal study and external validation, this scoring system can improve the efficiency of cervical cancer screening programs in low-resource settings.

During the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, we projected potential airline-mediated importation risk using contemporary airline network and an externally calibrated Ebola importation hazard. Effective-distance analyses identified major international hub countries, including Belgium, France, South Africa, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates, as higher-probability gateways within 30 days. These early projections provide a reproducible framework for real-time international situational awareness, while emphasizing that importation risk does not imply local transmission risk.

Abstract Introduction Onchocerciasis is targeted for elimination with community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). Alternative strategies are needed in areas where transmission persists despite long-term CDTI and/or are co-endemic with loiasis. This study assessed the efficacy of 35-day treatment with 100mg doxycycline on Wolbachia density at 6 months and microfilaridermia and palpable nodules at 30 months post-treatment. Methods A treatment follow-up study was conducted in 20 high-transmission onchocerciasis communities in a co-endemic loiasis area of South-West Cameroon. Community-based directly observed treatment with 100mg doxycycline was administered to community members aged [&ge;]9 years. Wolbachia clearance at 6-months and treatment efficacy on microfilaridermia and palpable nodules were assessed at 30-months post treatment. Factors associated with reductions in microfilaridermia post treatment, including adherence to doxycycline treatment were assessed with mixed-effects logistic regression. Results Over 92% (2835/3080) of eligible participants took 35 days of 100mg doxycycline over 5 or 6 weeks. This regimen achieved a 62.8% microfilaridermia reduction and 99% palpable nodule reduction in the 720 participants included at follow-up. Wolbachia depletion was observed in 92% of skin samples at 6 months post treatment. The most important factor associated with microfilaridermia after 30 months was having missed at least 7 doxycycline consecutive doses (OR 3.11, 95%CI: 1.17-8.26). Incomplete treatment to a lesser extent was not associated with reduced efficacy at follow-up. Conclusion This large-scale community intervention shows that a 5-week treatment with 100mg doxycycline is feasible and has high curative efficacy against adult O. volvulus as measured by the dramatic reduction in the proportion of palpable nodules at 30-months post treatment. The high efficacy shows the tremendous potential of anti-Wolbachia drugs as part of the arsenal for onchocerciasis elimination and paves the way for the next generation of anti-Wolbachia drugs with shorter treatment courses, which will facilitate the implementation of alternative strategies to accelerate onchocerciasis elimination.

The 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has already generated international spread to Uganda, raising concerns about further regional and international dissemination. Using International Air Transport Association origin-destination passenger flows, we assessed relative exposure to Ebola virus disease importation into Europe under six outbreak expansion scenarios reflecting plausible pathways of geographical spread, including cross-border transmission and amplification in highly connected regional capitals. Relative exposure patterns remained largely unchanged under localized transmission in eastern DRC and border-spillover scenarios. Expansion into South Sudan generated a first structural increase in importation pressure to Europe through the connectivity associated with Juba, while hypothetical amplification in Kampala, Kigali, and Kinshasa substantially increased importation pressure and reshaped exposure patterns across Europe. Across all scenarios, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom remained among the most exposed countries. Mobility-informed scenario analyses support preparedness as the geography of the outbreak evolves.

Introduction: Hypertension is the world's leading cause of death, and depression its leading cause of disability. Control rates for these noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are low in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Many LMICs have programs to screen and treat underserved communities for infectious diseases, but evidence to adapt them to treat NCDs is limited. We developed and tested a non-communicable disease program through Ghana's Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) primary care initiative. Methods: We trained 8 CHPS nurses to diagnose and treat hypertension and depression through door-to-door screening and pharmacotherapy. Physician assistants provided telehealth supervision. We combined this treatment with volunteer counseling to boost medication adherence, improve mood, and change health behaviors. We called the 90-day intervention the CHPS Opportunity for Mentally and Behaviorally Integrated NCD Engagement (COMBINE). Results: We recruited 60 adults from 580 screened: 37 with hypertension (mean blood pressure (BP) of 149/91 mm Hg) and 23 with depression (mean physician health questionnaire (PHQ-9) score of 13.3). After 90 days, 57/60 (95%) completed the intervention: 32/37 (86%) achieved blood pressure control (mean BP 122/75 mm Hg), and 19 of 20 (95%) achieved depression control (mean PHQ-9 score 2.0). After 12 months, 51/60 were retained: 33/37 with hypertension (89%) and 18/23 with depression (78%), with a mean BP of 121/75 and PHQ-9 score of 1.4 respectively. All 51 (100%) achieved disease control at 12 months. 5 persons left by migration and 4 by escalation to higher-level care. Conclusions: The COMBINE model achieved high levels of diagnosis, care retention, and disease control, with minimal adverse events, in a remote setting with limited usual NCD care. This model suggests a novel means to improve the care cascade for these and other noncommunicable diseases through existing non-physician care models in LMICs, warranting further controlled testing at scale.

Background. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will bring an estimated 1--5~million international visitors to 11~US host cities between June~11 and July~19, 2026---the largest tournament in history. Large-scale international gatherings accelerate importation of infectious diseases from diverse source populations. Advance estimation of importation risk is essential for public health preparedness and surveillance prioritization. Methods. We developed a Poisson importation framework applied to five diseases (dengue fever, influenza, malaria, measles, and pertussis) across the 11~US venue cities. Three nested travel models of increasing resolution were constructed: a baseline model using routine June~2024 arrival data; a World Cup--adjusted model incorporating projected visitor growth factors; and a schedule-driven model routing WC fans to specific cities based on match assignments. WHO incidence and BTS T-100 routing fractions were combined with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation (5,000 Uniform draws on under-reporting and travel-while-infectious parameters) to yield median importation estimates with 95\% uncertainty intervals. Results. Dengue posed the highest importation risk at most venue cities under the schedule-driven model (median $\Lambda > 10$ expected importations from Brazil alone; 95\% uncertainty interval 5.9--33.1), robust across the full literature-supported parameter range; Atlanta was the exception, where malaria probability exceeded dengue, driven by direct travel from West and Central African nations. Influenza ranked second at most cities, coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere winter peak. Pertussis showed broad geographic spread but carries the widest relative uncertainty, as the assumed detection rate sits at the upper bound of the literature range. Background tourism accounted for the dominant share of total importation risk; the World Cup fan increment contributed approximately 8.3\% of projected arrivals for WC-qualified nations. Conclusions. This Poisson importation framework, built entirely from publicly available data, provides reproducible importation risk estimates for mass gathering events. The framework extends to additional diseases, cities, and gatherings, offering a transparent baseline complementary to proprietary modeling systems.

Introduction: Blackpool, England's most deprived local authority, has the highest drug-related death rate in the country. People in police custody with problem substance use are a key Core20PLUS5 inclusion-health group, yet referral from the police into structured drug and alcohol treatment is fragmented and relies heavily on self-report. We evaluated the current police-to-treatment route in Blackpool and designed an evidence-informed unified pathway. Materials and Methods: A mixed-methods service evaluation and pathway-design project was conducted during a six-month General Practice / Public Health rotation. Routinely collected referral data from Horizon (the local specialist drug and alcohol service) covering the 47-month period from December 2019 to October 2023 were analysed. Findings were triangulated with national policy, the Project ADDER and Liaison and Diversion evaluations, and the international evidence on police-led pre-arrest diversion. Results: Of 5,900 total referrals into Horizon over 47 months, only 269 (4.56%) originated from the police. Police referrals accounted for fewer than 5% of monthly referrals in 30 of 47 months, for 5 to 9.9% in 16 months, and for >/= 10% in only one month (10.8%, December 2022). Blackpool recorded 76 drug-misuse deaths in 2019-21 (19.4 per 100,000, approximately four times the England rate). A six-step unified pathway is proposed: Initiate Referral (opt-out, from ADDER Police and Liaison and Diversion); Initial Assessment; Tailored Treatment Plan; Continuous Support; Collaboration and Monitoring; and Evaluation and Adjustment. Conclusions: Police contact is markedly under-used as a gateway to treatment despite Blackpool having the highest drug-related mortality in England. An opt-out, multi-agency pathway anchored in Core20PLUS5 has the potential to narrow the treatment gap, reduce re-offending, and address the structural health inequalities that drive premature mortality.